Ukraine Daily Summary - Tuesday, August 16

Russia amassing significant forces in Belarus for massive missile attack on Ukraine -- Russia will likely fail to capture entire Donetsk Oblast due to its 'maximalist objectives' in Ukraine -- Potential divisions among Russian proxies in Donbas -- Russian forces denied Red Cross full access to Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka -- and more

Ukraine Daily

Tuesday, August 16

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Russia’s war against Ukraine

KI-Inline_16-08-22

A young boy looks outside the window of an evacuation train departing from Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, on Aug. 6, 2022. (Alex Chan Tsz Yuk)

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UK Intelligence: Russia will likely fail to capture entire Donetsk Oblast due to its ‘maximalist objectives’ in Ukraine. The U.K. Defense Ministry said on Aug. 15 in its intelligence briefing that despite the unlikelihood of Russia occupying the whole region, Russian media reported earlier that Kremlin proxies are planning to announce a staged referendum in the occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast to “legitimize” Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories.

Belarus activists: Russia amassing significant forces in Belarus for massive missile attack on Ukraine. Preparations are underway for an attack on the territory of Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to Belaruskiy Hayun, a local Telegram channel, which has observed a massive influx of ammunition in Belarus.

Institute for the Study of War: Potential divisions among Russian proxies in Donbas. On Aug. 15, a video circulated of Russian proxies in Luhansk Oblast allegedly refusing to fight in Donetsk Oblast. While the U.S. think tank cannot independently verify the source, it states that the video is part of a “larger trend of diminished LNR (Russian proxies in Luhansk Oblast) investment in and morale to support” Russia’s war in Ukraine. In May, the ISW issued a similar report on appeals made by Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast, in which they complained about being redeployed from Mariupol to Luhansk.

Ukraine’s parliament extends martial law until Nov. 21. The martial law was first imposed in Ukraine on Feb. 24, the day Russia launched its full-scale war.

Governor: Over 100 Russian mercenaries could have been killed in Popasna. Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said that the Ukrainian military attacked the headquarters of the Russian private military company Wagner in Russian-occupied Popasna, Luhansk Oblast. Yuriy Kotenok, a Russian propagandist, wrote on his Telegram on Aug.14 that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS missiles to hit the base.

Official: Russian forces denied Red Cross full access to Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka. Oleksandr Vlasenko, a spokesman of the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRCR), told Suspilne media that the organization visited Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, twice after Ukrainian defenders were brought to prison. These visits did not meet the IRCR’s requirements — they were too short and the Red Cross employees couldn’t visit the entire premise or talk to the Ukrainian prisoners of war without the presence of Russian soldiers. According to Vlasenko, the Red Cross currently has access to a number of POWs in Olenivka. Among them, some are wounded from the prison attack, and the Red Cross is trying to access the bodies of the POWs murdered during July 29 attack.

Commission fails to elect head of Asset Recovery and Management Agency. The commission was expected to announce the name of the agency’s head on July 29 but delayed the decision until Aug. 15. The situation is reminiscent of another selection panel’s failure to select the chief anti-corruption prosecutor for several months in 2021-2022. Dmytro Zhoravovych has been the asset recovery agency’s acting chief since August 2021. Two of his predecessors - Anton Yanchuk and Vitaly Syhydyn - have been charged with embezzlement.

Parliament appoints anti-corruption activist to main judicial body. Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada appointed lawyer Roman Maselko and legal scholar Mykola Moroz as members of the High Council of Justice, the judiciary’s main governing body. Anti-corruption activists have argued that they meet ethics and integrity standards and praised Maselko’s appointment. Maselko has worked at anti-corruption watchdog AutoMaidan and the Public Integrity Council, a judicial watchdog, and defended protesters who were persecuted during the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution. Moroz, who works at the National Law University in Kharkiv, is less well-known.

Ukraine’s exports fall by 24% in six months. The export of goods from Ukraine amounted to $22.7 billion since January, the equivalent of 76% for the same period last year, the State Statistics Service reported on Aug. 15.

Russian state-controlled media: Kremlin proxies in Donbas ready to sentence 5 foreigners who fought for Ukraine. Three of them, Matthias Gustavsson from Sweden, Vekoslav Prebeg, from Croatia, and John Harding, from the U.K., may face the death penalty after sham trials, according to Russian state-controlled media outlet RIA Novosti.

Melitopol Mayor: City likely to be without heat in winter. Russian occupiers will not have the time to repair heating infrastructure by the beginning of winter, leaving residents without heat for the cold season, Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Russian-occupied Melitopol, warned. Fedorov said 95% of the city’s heating comes from gas, and the city has been without it for three weeks.

Read our exclusives here

Speculation regarding Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s health has been rife in recent years. Before Feb., it was purely in the realm of gossip. Yet the topic got a boost after Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine. Read our story here.

Months after the Russian military retreated from Kyiv Oblast, a 21-year-old Russian soldier confessed to killing a civilian man in the then-occupied village of Andriivka on March 12 by order of his commander. Read our story here.

After the ongoing judicial reform was marred by several scandals, the Verkhovna Rada on Aug. 15 appointed Roman Maselko, a lawyer and well-known anti-corruption crusader, to the judiciary’s main body – the High Council of Justice. Read our story here.

The human cost of Russia’s war

Kyiv Oblast authorities: About 50 remains of civilians still unidentified in Bucha. Over the past week, 35 people were given a decent burial, the head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, Oleksiy Kuleba, said. The bodies of 1,349 civilians killed by the Russian military have been found in Kyiv Oblast as of Aug. 5.

One person killed in Russian attack on Kharkiv. According to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov, Russian forces shelled the city’s Saltivka residential neighborhood. Four people were hospitalized after the attack, and one person died at the hospital, said Serhiy Bolvinov, head of Kharkiv Oblast police’s investigative department.

Official: 3 people killed, 2 wounded by landmine explosion in Odesa Oblast. Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for Odesa Oblast’s administration, said a group of people ignored restrictions on visiting the coast in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, on Aug. 14.

General Staff: Russia has lost 43,750 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Aug. 15 that Russia had also lost 1,876 tanks, 4,141 armored fighting vehicles, 3,044 vehicles and fuel tanks, 985 artillery systems, 261 multiple launch rocket systems, 136 air defense systems, 195 helicopters, 233 airplanes, 787 drones, and 15 boats.

International response

UN denies Russia’s accusations of blocking IAEA visit to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Various Russian officials have recently accused the UN Secretariat of allegedly canceling or blocking the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from visiting the plant, according to Stephane Dujarric, spokesman of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Dujariic responded by saying that the UN Secretariat does not have the authority to block any actions of the IAEA and on the contrary, supports an IAEA mission to the power plant. Russia seized control of the Zaporizhzhia power plant in the town of Enerhodar in March and is using the site as a military base to launch attacks on Ukraine.

Dutch court to announce verdict in MH17 murder trial on Nov. 17. The trial began in 2020, with four people charged – three Russians and one Ukrainian national linked to the Kremlin’s proxies. The Malaysian Airlines’ MH17 flight was downed by a Russian Buk missile over eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014, killing 298 people on board.

Canada freezes over $300 million in Russian assets since Feb. 24. According to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Canada has seized $413 million CAD ($320 million) worth of Russian assets in compliance with economic sanctions since the start of the war.

Latvia delivers 4 helicopters to Ukraine. Local media Delfi reported that Latvia sent two Mi-17 helicopters and two Mi-2 helicopters to the Ukrainian Air Force. Latvia has already supplied Ukraine with weapons, including Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, worth more than 200 million euros.

France to help demine Chernihiv Oblast. In a meeting with Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, the French Embassy in Ukraine reportedly discussed the provision of equipment and specialists, as well as the training of Ukrainian personnel, to demine Chernihiv Oblast. On July 5, France announced it will help reconstruct Chernihiv Oblast, with which it has “ancient ties.”

Software company Ciklum leaves Belarus. The U.K.-based IT company with offices in Ukraine is the latest company to leave the Belarusian market. Most international companies, including Amazon, UPS, and AirBnB left Belarus in March after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

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